0 comments

Technical Analysis Aug.11th

by on August 11, 2014 7:28 am BST
 

EURUSD

The support at 1.3350 proved to be significant last week by keeping the Euro away from 2013 Q4 low. Still, we are likely to see a test of 1.33 before there is an upward correction to 1.35, which a cluster of various resistances, including the three-month down-trend and monthly PP. Right now this course of events is also supported by the technical indicators, with weekly and daily being bearish and monthly studies pointing North.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
After being slightly bullish for a while the sentiment returned to being neutral once again—53% of positions are long and 47% are short. Meanwhile, a majority of the orders is placed to sell the Euro against the Buck, namely 58% of the total.

 

EURUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.3535 1.3541 1.3484
Resistance 2 1.3484 1.3487 1.345
Resistance 1 1.3447 1.3453 1.3429
Pivot 1.3395 1.3398 1.3395
Support 1 1.3358 1.3364 1.3361
Support 2 1.3306 1.3309 1.334
Support 3 1.3269 1.3275 1.3306

 

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has just hit the monthly S1, and if the bears keep forcing the pair to go lower, there are also the 200-day SMA and May low that are ready to help the Sterling. Given a large number of important levels underneath the spot, there is a high possibility the sell-off may soon discontinue without crossing 1.67. The upside risks are at the same time implied by the monthly technical indicators, as five of them are bullish.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
There are currently more long positions than short ones in the market—the share of the former is 61%. At the same time there are more commands placed to acquire the British Pound than to sell the currency—59 and 41% respectively.

 

GBPUSD Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6878 1.687 1.6855
Resistance 2 1.6855 1.6851 1.683
Resistance 1 1.6814 1.6806 1.6815
Pivot 1.679 1.6786 1.679
Support 1 1.6749 1.6741 1.6765
Support 2 1.6725 1.6721 1.675
Support 3 1.6684 1.6676 1.6725

 

USDJPY

As turned out, USDJPY required assistance of the major rising trend-line at 101.53 in order to preserve chances to rally. And even though on the daily and monthly time-frames the currency pair is supposed to be moving North, it fails to start a recovery and finally gain a foothold above the 200-day SMA. This would supposedly give the U.S. Dollar confidence to surpass the recent highs at 103 and then challenge the 2014 Q2 high at 101.42.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
Nearly three fourths (73%) of the market participants are expecting the U.S. Dollar to outperform the Japanese Yen in the future. There is also a large portion of buy orders set 100 pips around the spot price—61%.

 

USDJPY Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 102.9 102.96 102.52
Resistance 2 102.52 102.55 102.28
Resistance 1 102.27 102.33 102.13
Pivot 101.89 101.92 101.89
Support 1 101.64 101.7 101.65
Support 2 101.26 101.29 101.5
Support 3 101.02 101.08 101.26

 

USDCHF

The Greenback remains below 0.91, the last hurdle that needs to be overcome to reach this year’s high. The daily indicators are currently supportive of such a bullish scenario, but the longer-term signals are not as encouraging, meaning 0.9150 may in the end stay intact. On the other hand, a path of the least resistance is to the upside, considering there are monthly PP, 200-day SMA and five-month up-trend supporting the currency at the moment.

 

Traders’ Sentiment
The advantage of the longs grew even further over the weekend, being that their share went from 71 up to 75% after the U.S. currency had become cheaper. As for the orders, 58% of them are to buy and 42% are to sell the Buck.

 

USDCHF Pivot Levels Pivot Woodie Fibonacci
Resistance 3 1.6878 1.687 1.6855
Resistance 2 1.6855 1.6851 1.683
Resistance 1 1.6814 1.6806 1.6815
Pivot 1.679 1.6786 1.679
Support 1 1.6749 1.6741 1.6765
Support 2 1.6725 1.6721 1.675
Support 3 1.6684 1.6676 1.6725