AUDUSD seen a surge after Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI and European PMI shows signs of improvement, and the Aussie-dollar is +85 pips respectively. However, the tone of the day may be set when The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is released at 10AM EST. Upon looking at the weekly chart, AUDUSD shows signs of a short term base-support after reaching targets of .9665 and .955. The weekly shows promise of hitting the .98 mark, but the Aussie never has no willingness to break and close above key resistance.
On the intraday 4H chart, AUDUSD is consolidating and range bound. Currently, the 50 EMA is acting as resistance at .9668. The top of the consolidation will add additional resistance roughly at .969; however if price action can break to the upside, the move to .98 is confirmed. Unfortunately, the economic woes will continue to haunt Australia and it’s currency. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Job Advertisements report and Business Inventories fell well below analyst estimates. Retail sales narrowly misses expectations – .2 percent v. .3 percent estimates (-.4 in May and 1.3 in April).
Bottom line: unless business and employment conditions straighten, AUDUSD is still long-term bearish with a final target of .937. However, a consolidation break for a short-term target of .98 is possible, but it should not change the overall sentiment. A close above .9845 will trigger reevaluation of future bullish upside.