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AUDUSD Falls on Employment Data

by on November 7, 2013 1:18 am BST
 

The AUDUSD is falling on the employment data release tonight. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, employment fell to 11,636,600, while unemployment increased to 710K. This pushed the unemployment rate less than a tenth of a percent to 5.8 percent, while the participation rate decreased to 64.8 percent. The monthly change in employment, seasonally adjusted, increased only 1,100 from the previous reading. There was nearly a one-for-one change in full-time and part-time employment. Full-time employment fell 27,900, while part-time employment increased to 28,900.

The Australian employment situation is still a mercurial one:

Australian Employment Changes since Jan. 2011

Australian Employment Changes since Jan. 2011

The aussie-dollar fell over 40 pips on the release of the disappointing employment numbers further indicating trouble in Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been consistent in noting the sub-par growth in the country, which relies heavily on China. The AUDUSD has had a monster month but has begun to tire over the last couple weeks after making a 50 percent retrace of the yearly highs of 1.0597.

The 38.2 percent Fib. level has been a no-man’s land as price action started to hover. This employment report is the catalyst to send the pair lower, and the dollar index is currently up .08 percent. The pair bounced off the 50 EMA before making another attempt at .9515 prior to this report, and the 50 EMA is likely to be the next level of support. Further support is at .9400, but we will see what City traders in London have to say about this report (The London session represents the largest FX volume in the world).

1D Chart of AUDUSD

1D Chart of AUDUSD

The intraday chart and Fib. set-up concurs with lower-level support near .9400, while current price action is being supported by the 4H 200 EMA. The ADX is showing a strong 20 reading with a bearish -DMI/+DMI crossover.

4H Chart of AUDUSD

4H Chart of AUDUSD